Volume 1, Issue 2 (1-2024)
Agric Mark Econ 2024, 1(2): 122-135 |
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Samian M, Mehrjo S, Bishesari S. (2024). The Effect of Price Policies on the Optimal Cropping Pattern (Case Study: Kobudarahang Plains). Agric Mark Econ. 1(2), 122-135. doi:10.61186/ame.1.2.122
URL: http://ame.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-21-en.html
URL: http://ame.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-21-en.html
1- Department of Economic Sciences, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
2- Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
3- Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
2- Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
3- Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
Abstract: (713 Views)
Extended Abstract
Introduction and Objective: Agricultural producers are facing various risks. A group of these risks are production risks that affect the production or performance of the producer; Among these risks, we can mention weather changes, diseases, pests, etc. The second group of risks, so-called price risks, affects the price received by the producer or the price paid for his input, and as a result, causes fluctuations in prices. The third group of risks is called policy-making or institutional risks. Producers always face this group of risks; The fourth group of risks, which are called market risks, are caused by the market conditions of agricultural products and the lack of market infrastructure. The fifth group of risks that the government must take necessary measures to face are health risks. Here, we do not mean the consumer's health, but the producer's health. Because the producer, as a human being, performs a part of the production process, which in many cases has no replacement; Pricing policies and tools include tools whose policy variable is to support the price received by the producer for the product or the price paid for the inputs used in production. This article seeks to the effect of price policies on the optimal cropping pattern (Case study: Kobudarahang Plains).
Material and Methods: In this research, to investigate the impact of price policies, the approach of positive mathematical planning is used, in which many limitations and disadvantages of normative mathematical planning have been removed. Therefore, considering the aforementioned advantages and its novelty compared to other agricultural policy analysis methods, and considering that the mentioned method is one of the mathematical planning methods, it has been chosen as the methodology of the present research for the analysis of the desired policies. The secondary data in this research was obtained from the Jihad Organization of Agriculture, Regional Water, Iran Statistics Center, etc., and finally 11 scenarios including price, input, and irrigation efficiency scenarios were compiled and implemented in Kabudar Ahang Plain using GAMS software.
Results: The results of applying the scenario of removing the guaranteed price policy and pricing products with the world price and the exchange rate of 42 thousand Rials in the Kabudar Ahang Plain showed that as a result of applying this policy, the area under cropping in the region has decreased drastically, so that the area under cropping in the area has decreased from 135,439 hectares to 79,501 hectares. (41%) decreases. The largest decrease in the cultivated area is related to dry wheat with a 70% decrease. The results of applying the scenario of removing the guaranteed price policy and pricing products with the world price and the exchange rate of 136 thousand Rials in the Kabodar Ahang plain indicated that by applying this scenario, the area under cropping will decrease by 30%. The third scenario investigated regarding the guaranteed price in this study is the continuation of the policy of guaranteeing the price of agricultural products according to the approved prices of the 2019-2019 crop year in the Kabudar Ahang plain, as a result of the application of this policy, the area under cropping in the entire region will decrease by 39%, which is the largest decrease in the area under cropping It is related to the low-yield crops of rainfed barley (67 percent) and dry wheat (48 percent). On the other hand, as a result of applying this policy and according to the prices of the crop year 2019-400, the area under cropping of cucumber, potato and blue wheat has increased the most and the orders increased by 129%, 82% and 51%. Another important point regarding this policy is that water consumption will be reduced by 39%.
Introduction and Objective: Agricultural producers are facing various risks. A group of these risks are production risks that affect the production or performance of the producer; Among these risks, we can mention weather changes, diseases, pests, etc. The second group of risks, so-called price risks, affects the price received by the producer or the price paid for his input, and as a result, causes fluctuations in prices. The third group of risks is called policy-making or institutional risks. Producers always face this group of risks; The fourth group of risks, which are called market risks, are caused by the market conditions of agricultural products and the lack of market infrastructure. The fifth group of risks that the government must take necessary measures to face are health risks. Here, we do not mean the consumer's health, but the producer's health. Because the producer, as a human being, performs a part of the production process, which in many cases has no replacement; Pricing policies and tools include tools whose policy variable is to support the price received by the producer for the product or the price paid for the inputs used in production. This article seeks to the effect of price policies on the optimal cropping pattern (Case study: Kobudarahang Plains).
Material and Methods: In this research, to investigate the impact of price policies, the approach of positive mathematical planning is used, in which many limitations and disadvantages of normative mathematical planning have been removed. Therefore, considering the aforementioned advantages and its novelty compared to other agricultural policy analysis methods, and considering that the mentioned method is one of the mathematical planning methods, it has been chosen as the methodology of the present research for the analysis of the desired policies. The secondary data in this research was obtained from the Jihad Organization of Agriculture, Regional Water, Iran Statistics Center, etc., and finally 11 scenarios including price, input, and irrigation efficiency scenarios were compiled and implemented in Kabudar Ahang Plain using GAMS software.
Results: The results of applying the scenario of removing the guaranteed price policy and pricing products with the world price and the exchange rate of 42 thousand Rials in the Kabudar Ahang Plain showed that as a result of applying this policy, the area under cropping in the region has decreased drastically, so that the area under cropping in the area has decreased from 135,439 hectares to 79,501 hectares. (41%) decreases. The largest decrease in the cultivated area is related to dry wheat with a 70% decrease. The results of applying the scenario of removing the guaranteed price policy and pricing products with the world price and the exchange rate of 136 thousand Rials in the Kabodar Ahang plain indicated that by applying this scenario, the area under cropping will decrease by 30%. The third scenario investigated regarding the guaranteed price in this study is the continuation of the policy of guaranteeing the price of agricultural products according to the approved prices of the 2019-2019 crop year in the Kabudar Ahang plain, as a result of the application of this policy, the area under cropping in the entire region will decrease by 39%, which is the largest decrease in the area under cropping It is related to the low-yield crops of rainfed barley (67 percent) and dry wheat (48 percent). On the other hand, as a result of applying this policy and according to the prices of the crop year 2019-400, the area under cropping of cucumber, potato and blue wheat has increased the most and the orders increased by 129%, 82% and 51%. Another important point regarding this policy is that water consumption will be reduced by 39%.
Type of Study: Research |
Received: 2022/05/23 | Accepted: 2024/03/2
Received: 2022/05/23 | Accepted: 2024/03/2
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