Volume 1, Issue 2 (1-2024)
Agric Mark Econ 2024, 1(2): 34-50 |
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Ahani E, Ziaei S, Mardani Najafabadi M. (2024). Assessment and Simulation of the Effects of Climate Change on the Economic Productivity of Crop Water Resources Using Water and Carbon Footprint in Northeastern Iran. Agric Mark Econ. 1(2), 34-50. doi:10.61186/ame.1.2.34
URL: http://ame.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-54-en.html
URL: http://ame.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-54-en.html
1- Department of Agricultural Economics, Zabol University, Iran
2- Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Rural Civil Engineering, Khuzestan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Iran
2- Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Rural Civil Engineering, Khuzestan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Iran
Abstract: (997 Views)
Introduction and Objective: Increasing temperature, solar radiation, and changes in rainfall patterns are among the most important factors affecting increasing plant water requirement, evapotranspiration and changes in volume and runoff, and soil moisture, which in turn have changed the demand and supply of water in the agricultural sector of northeastern Iran. Therefore, the sum of these cases necessitates awareness of the effects of climate change on agriculture and water resources. Considering the water crisis in Iran and its northeastern catchments, especially the Kashf Roud catchment, which is one of the most critical basins, attention to water productivity in these areas is essential. In this regard, to calculate the amount of water consumed in different growth stages, the water footprint index was used to evaluate the appropriate water used in the agricultural sector in different climates.
Materials and Methods: Simulation of basin parameters under climatic scenarios for the period 2040-2021 has been done in WEAP software. After modelling water resources in WEAP software, to define climate change scenarios, the simulation results using the weighted combination of four AOGCM models from the project comparing the coupled models of the sixth phase (CIMP6) under three scenarios SSP1-2.6 (optimistic), SSP3-0.7 (pessimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (very pessimistic) for the baseline period (1993-2012) and future period (2021-2040). The output observations of the sixth report models are under new scenarios (SSPs), which are the trajectories of the common socio-economic sectors, i.e., socially sustainable pathways, and describe different scenarios for future economic development, population and technology, and different concentrations of greenhouse gases. The conceptual framework of the present study was to calculate the economic and physical productivity of crop water resources using water footprint and carbon in climate change conditions. This approach was developed in the Kashf Roud catchment area located in northeastern Iran for 2019-2020.
Results: The results showed that the water requirement of crops increased in all climate scenarios (CMIP6) and its yield decreased. Also, the highest water footprint among selected crops were sugar beet, forage corn, onion, alfalfa, tomato, and cucumber, respectively. The increase in the water footprint index of products in the basin indicated a higher volume of blue water footprint than green water footprint, which indicates increased evapotranspiration and decreased rainfall in the northeast of the country. The results showed that alfalfa (2623.2 m3/t) in a pessimistic scenario had the highest and the lowest water footprint with 502 m3/ton forage with 502 m3/ton. Potatoes, tomatoes, cucumbers, onions, and barley had the highest economic productivity in pessimistic climatic conditions, respectively. This is a sign of decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures in 2040. Also، the lowest physical productivity in the pessimistic climate was wheat and alfalfa (309.2 and 336.2 k/m3، respectively). In other words, with changing climate conditions and increasing water demand for crops, the index of economic water productivity has been lowered.
Among the studied crops, corn had the lowest share in green water footprint (1%) per hectare.
However, the share of this product from blue footprint is estimated to be 14.52%. Also, alfalfa, barley, wheat, and tomato crops (21.85, 20.36, 20.03, and 10.09%) had the highest share and significant amount of green water footprint, respectively. In contrast, the share of the aqueous water footprint of the mentioned products was estimated to be 12.3%, 2.5%, 5.7%, and 11.7%, respectively. The economic productivity index of wheat and alfalfa in the pessimistic scenario was calculated as 9276.3 and 7444.02 Rials per cubic meter. The continuation of drought conditions in the basin has led to a 48 and 56 percent reduction in its productivity. The highest water footprint and carbon footprint were potatoes, sugar beet, onion, cucumber, and corn, respectively. The least of them were wheat, barley, tomatoes, and alfalfa, respectively. According to the concept of water footprint, if less water can be used to produce a particular product, that product is a priority. Therefore, the most suitable product in the discussion of water and carbon footprint is that of wheat.
Conclusion: In this study, water consumption for agricultural products was investigated. The results showed that the share of green water footprint in alfalfa, barley, wheat, and tomato crops was more than 20% of the total water footprint share. In general, due to the consequences of climate change and the upcoming droughts, special attention should be paid to the issue of water scarcity and water resources should be managed appropriately. Also, major changes should be made in crop cultivation patterns so that crops with less water requirement and higher yields appropriate to the climate of each region will replace the other crops. The most important solution is to reduce the water footprint by reducing the demand and consumption of water and in other words, balancing the water supply according to the potential of the region's water resources. One of the practical solutions in water resources management, estimation of plant water requirement and determination of water volume consumed at different stages of production was proposed.
Materials and Methods: Simulation of basin parameters under climatic scenarios for the period 2040-2021 has been done in WEAP software. After modelling water resources in WEAP software, to define climate change scenarios, the simulation results using the weighted combination of four AOGCM models from the project comparing the coupled models of the sixth phase (CIMP6) under three scenarios SSP1-2.6 (optimistic), SSP3-0.7 (pessimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (very pessimistic) for the baseline period (1993-2012) and future period (2021-2040). The output observations of the sixth report models are under new scenarios (SSPs), which are the trajectories of the common socio-economic sectors, i.e., socially sustainable pathways, and describe different scenarios for future economic development, population and technology, and different concentrations of greenhouse gases. The conceptual framework of the present study was to calculate the economic and physical productivity of crop water resources using water footprint and carbon in climate change conditions. This approach was developed in the Kashf Roud catchment area located in northeastern Iran for 2019-2020.
Results: The results showed that the water requirement of crops increased in all climate scenarios (CMIP6) and its yield decreased. Also, the highest water footprint among selected crops were sugar beet, forage corn, onion, alfalfa, tomato, and cucumber, respectively. The increase in the water footprint index of products in the basin indicated a higher volume of blue water footprint than green water footprint, which indicates increased evapotranspiration and decreased rainfall in the northeast of the country. The results showed that alfalfa (2623.2 m3/t) in a pessimistic scenario had the highest and the lowest water footprint with 502 m3/ton forage with 502 m3/ton. Potatoes, tomatoes, cucumbers, onions, and barley had the highest economic productivity in pessimistic climatic conditions, respectively. This is a sign of decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures in 2040. Also، the lowest physical productivity in the pessimistic climate was wheat and alfalfa (309.2 and 336.2 k/m3، respectively). In other words, with changing climate conditions and increasing water demand for crops, the index of economic water productivity has been lowered.
Among the studied crops, corn had the lowest share in green water footprint (1%) per hectare.
However, the share of this product from blue footprint is estimated to be 14.52%. Also, alfalfa, barley, wheat, and tomato crops (21.85, 20.36, 20.03, and 10.09%) had the highest share and significant amount of green water footprint, respectively. In contrast, the share of the aqueous water footprint of the mentioned products was estimated to be 12.3%, 2.5%, 5.7%, and 11.7%, respectively. The economic productivity index of wheat and alfalfa in the pessimistic scenario was calculated as 9276.3 and 7444.02 Rials per cubic meter. The continuation of drought conditions in the basin has led to a 48 and 56 percent reduction in its productivity. The highest water footprint and carbon footprint were potatoes, sugar beet, onion, cucumber, and corn, respectively. The least of them were wheat, barley, tomatoes, and alfalfa, respectively. According to the concept of water footprint, if less water can be used to produce a particular product, that product is a priority. Therefore, the most suitable product in the discussion of water and carbon footprint is that of wheat.
Conclusion: In this study, water consumption for agricultural products was investigated. The results showed that the share of green water footprint in alfalfa, barley, wheat, and tomato crops was more than 20% of the total water footprint share. In general, due to the consequences of climate change and the upcoming droughts, special attention should be paid to the issue of water scarcity and water resources should be managed appropriately. Also, major changes should be made in crop cultivation patterns so that crops with less water requirement and higher yields appropriate to the climate of each region will replace the other crops. The most important solution is to reduce the water footprint by reducing the demand and consumption of water and in other words, balancing the water supply according to the potential of the region's water resources. One of the practical solutions in water resources management, estimation of plant water requirement and determination of water volume consumed at different stages of production was proposed.
Type of Study: Research |
Received: 2023/12/9 | Accepted: 2024/01/29
Received: 2023/12/9 | Accepted: 2024/01/29
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